Halpern: Obama’s real agenda

I'm thinking

by Micah Halpern

A golden rule in diplomacy and foreign affairs: Beware if you do not know the outcome of a diplomatic move. If you are not sure of the long-term potential results of your actions, think carefully before you make your move. Make sure that the end result will be justified by your actions.

A golden rule of wishful thinking: Careful what you wish for.

The US is applying an inordinate amount of pressure on Israel as disciplinary action for Israel’s faux pas during Vice President Joseph Biden’s visit. The announcement that Israel will be constructing 1,600 apartment units in the Jerusalem neighborhood of Ramat Shlomo was ill-timed, but should not have caught anyone by surprise. Israel has always maintained that Jerusalem is different. That talk about settlement activity does not include Jerusalem. That Jerusalem is not a settlement, but the eternal capital of Israel. That the rules do not apply to Jerusalem.

According to my analysis, Israel’s ill-timed announcement and America’s strong reaction is only the public reason for the pressure. The US has another agenda — one they are keeping private and cloaked in diplomatic-speak. The US is intent on breaking the settlement issue. And Barack Obama is intent on removing Netanyahu from office. The state department wants settlements outlawed; the president wants Bibi out.

Debate over settlements galvanizes the world Muslim community more than any other issue. And the settlement issue has embarrassed the Obama administration on more than one occasion. They wink and smile and make public statements about everlasting friendship, but the US is bent on breaking both the back of Israeli leadership and the settlement status quo.

The US knows a moratorium has been put into place for building in the West Bank. They know that, by agreement, the moratorium has yet to go into effect. They know it — but they don’t like it. Characteristically, President Barack Obama is calling for change. Washington wants real results beginning with a total suspension of building.

The administration is overplaying its hand; its diplomacy is faulty and erroneous. Just like the Palestinians cannot be forced into a peace deal, neither can Israel. And the deal that the US is forcing on Israel is a deal that does not even permit Israel to defend boundaries and protect citizens.

Diplomatically, breaking Israel has consequences. Getting Israel to capitulate and call a moratorium on building in Jerusalem may be what the US thinks is wants, but the plan will backfire. It will strengthen the right flank of Netanyahu’s government, already composed of parties that believe the US should have no input in Israeli policy and direction. These groups orchestrated the fateful announcement. Their actions will impact on Israel’s voting public, making moderate Israelis a scarce commodity and, potentially, destroying Kadima. And then there is the question of security. The question of US-Israeli relations is being discussed in Arabic newspapers around the world.

Pushing Israel sends a clear message to her enemies: The US will not be there in a crunch.

The moral of this story: All diplomatic fights need not be fought, certainly not publicly.